CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-11-14T08:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-11-14T08:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42713/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo seen with bulk to the northwest with a faint halo-shaped shock in SOHO LASCO C2/LASCO C3 with wider bulk seen to the north and northwest in STEREO A COR2A associated with an X4.0-class solar flare from AR14274 (N24W71). The eruption is characterized by brightening seen best in GOES SUVI 131 and as well in GOES SUVI 195 and GOES SUVI 284 imagery with a significant, rapid field line movement and darkening seen off the northwest limb around 2025-11-14T07:45Z. | Arrival Notes: Characterised by a sharp jump in solar wind speed from 550 km/s to initially 650 km/s and eventually (around 2025-11-16T05Z to 700 km/s), likely indicating a shock/sheath. Magnetic field also had two consecutive jumps paralleling the solar wind speed increases: initially from 4n to over 10 nT and then to 15.7 nT by 2025-11-16T05:19Z. Ion temperature has the same increases as the solar wind speed and magnetic field. Bz was mostly positive, but ater 2025-11-16T08Z there were prolonged periods of negative Bz. Flux rope likely starts after 2025-11-16T09:30Z (when there is a drop in temperature, density and solar wind speed and a smoother rotation).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-16T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-16T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2025 Nov 15 1301 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data. It was associated with the X4.1 flare (SIDC Flare 6063) that peaked at 08:30 UTC on 14 Nov 2025 from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274). The plane-of-sky speed in SOHO/LASCO is about 1500 km/s, while STEREO-A indicates about 1300 km/s. A 3D reconstruction gives a true speed of roughly 1650 to 1700 km/s. The apex is slightly offset from the Sun-Earth line, so a direct impact is unlikely, but a flank encounter remains possible. EUHFORIA modeling indicates a glancing blow early on 16 Nov with at most a weak to moderate shock or compression, and geomagnetic activity up to active or minor storm levels depending on the interplanetary magnetic field orientation within the CME. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium #Lead Time: 13.27 hour(s)
Difference: -1.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-15T12:16Z
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